Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Richard J. Dawson  Tom Ball 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):628-646

Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties.  相似文献   

On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Richard S. Lindzen  Yong-Sang Choi 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(4):377-390

We estimate climate sensitivity from observations, using the deseasonalized fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the concurrent fluctuations in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing radiation from the ERBE (1985–1999) and CERES (2000–2008) satellite instruments. Distinct periods of warming and cooling in the SSTs were used to evaluate feedbacks. An earlier study (Lindzen and Choi, 2009) was subject to significant criticisms. The present paper is an expansion of the earlier paper where the various criticisms are taken into account. The present analysis accounts for the 72 day precession period for the ERBE satellite in a more appropriate manner than in the earlier paper. We develop a method to distinguish noise in the outgoing radiation as well as radiation changes that are forcing SST changes from those radiation changes that constitute feedbacks to changes in SST. We demonstrate that our new method does moderately well in distinguishing positive from negative feedbacks and in quantifying negative feedbacks. In contrast, we show that simple regression methods used by several existing papers generally exaggerate positive feedbacks and even show positive feedbacks when actual feedbacks are negative. We argue that feedbacks are largely concentrated in the tropics, and the tropical feedbacks can be adjusted to account for their impact on the globe as a whole. Indeed, we show that including all CERES data (not just from the tropics) leads to results similar to what are obtained for the tropics alone — though with more noise. We again find that the outgoing radiation resulting from SST fluctuations exceeds the zerofeedback response thus implying negative feedback. In contrast to this, the calculated TOA outgoing radiation fluxes from 11 atmospheric models forced by the observed SST are less than the zerofeedback response, consistent with the positive feedbacks that characterize these models. The results imply that the models are exaggerating climate sensitivity.  相似文献   

Comparing gravity and gravity gradient surveys     

Gary J. Barnes  John M. Lumley  Phill I. Houghton  Richard J. Gleave 《Geophysical Prospecting》2011,59(1):176-187

Noise levels in marine and airborne full tensor gravity gradiometer surveys together with conventional land, marine and airborne gravity surveys are estimated and analysed in gridded form, resulting in relations that detail how these different survey systems can be compared analytically. After defining survey parameters including line spacing, speed and instrument bandwidth, the relations estimate the noise levels that result on either grids of gravity (gz) or gravity gradient (Gzz) as a function of the spatial filtering often applied during geological interpretation. Such comparisons are believed to be a useful preliminary guide for survey selection and planning.  相似文献   

Fault Roughness at Seismogenic Depths from LIDAR and Photogrammetric Analysis     

Andrea Bistacchi  W. Ashley Griffith  Steven A. F. Smith  Giulio Di Toro  Richard Jones  Stefan Nielsen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(12):2345-2363

Fault surface roughness is a principal factor influencing earthquake mechanics, and particularly rupture initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, little data currently exist on fault surfaces at seismogenic depths. Here, we investigate the roughness of slip surfaces from the seismogenic strike-slip Gole Larghe Fault Zone, exhumed from ca. 10 km depth. The fault zone exploited pre-existing joints and is hosted in granitoid rocks of the Adamello batholith (Italian Alps). Individual seismogenic slip surfaces generally show a first phase of cataclasite production, and a second phase with beautifully preserved pseudotachylytes of variable thickness. We determined the geometry of fault traces over almost five orders of magnitude using terrestrial laser-scanning (LIDAR, ca. 500 to <1 m scale), and 3D mosaics of high-resolution rectified digital photographs (10 m to ca. 1 mm scale). LIDAR scans and photomosaics were georeferenced in 3D using a Differential Global Positioning System, allowing detailed multiscale reconstruction of fault traces in Gocad^®. The combination of LIDAR and high-resolution photos has the advantage, compared with classical LIDAR-only surveys, that the spatial resolution of rectified photographs can be very high (up to 0.2 mm/pixel in this study), allowing for detailed outcrop characterization. Fourier power spectrum analysis of the fault traces revealed a self-affine behaviour over 3–5 orders of magnitude, with Hurst exponents ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Parameters from Fourier analysis have been used to reconstruct synthetic 3D fault surfaces with an equivalent roughness by means of 2D Fourier synthesis. Roughness of pre-existing joints is in a typical range for this kind of structure. Roughness of faults at small scale (1 m to 1 mm) shows a clear genetic relationship with the roughness of precursor joints, and some anisotropy in the self-affine Hurst exponent. Roughness of faults at scales larger than net slip (>1–10 m) is not anisotropic and less evolved than at smaller scales. These observations are consistent with an evolution of roughness, due to fault surface processes, that takes place only at scales smaller or comparable to the observed net slip. Differences in roughness evolution between shallow and deeper faults, the latter showing evidences of seismic activity, are interpreted as the result of different weakening versus induration processes, which also result in localization versus delocalization of deformation in the fault zone. From a methodological point of view, the technique used here is advantageous over direct measurements of exposed fault surfaces in that it preserves, in cross-section, all of the structures which contribute to fault roughness, and removes any subjectivity introduced by the need to distinguish roughness of original slip surfaces from roughness induced by secondary weathering processes. Moreover, offsets can be measured by means of suitable markers and fault rocks are preserved, hence their thickness, composition and structural features can be characterised, providing an integrated dataset which sheds new light on mechanisms of roughness evolution with slip and concomitant fault rock production.  相似文献   

Principal Slip Zones in Limestone: Microstructural Characterization and Implications for the Seismic Cycle (Tre Monti Fault, Central Apennines, Italy)     

Steven A. F. Smith  Andrea Billi  Giulio Di Toro  Richard Spiess 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(12):2365-2393

Earthquakes in central Italy, and in other areas worldwide, often nucleate within and rupture through carbonates in the upper crust. During individual earthquake ruptures, most fault displacement is thought to be accommodated by thin principal slip zones. This study presents detailed microstructural observations of the slip zones of the seismically active Tre Monti normal fault zone. All of the slip zones cut limestone, and geological constraints indicate exhumation from <2?km depth, where ambient temperatures are ?100°C. Scanning electron microscope observations suggest that the slip zones are composed of 100% calcite. The slip zones of secondary faults in the damage zone contain protocataclastic and cataclastic fabrics that are cross-cut by systematic fracture networks and stylolite dissolution surfaces. The slip zone of the principal fault has much more microstructural complexity, and contains a 2?C10?mm thick ultracataclasite that lies immediately beneath the principal slip surface. The ultracataclasite itself is internally zoned; 200?C300???m-thick ultracataclastic sub-layers record extreme localization of slip. Syn-tectonic calcite vein networks spatially associated with the sub-layers suggest fluid involvement in faulting. The ultracataclastic sub-layers preserve compelling microstructural evidence of fluidization, and also contain peculiar rounded grains consisting of a central (often angular) clast wrapped by a laminated outer cortex of ultra-fine-grained calcite. These ??clast-cortex grains?? closely resemble those produced during layer fluidization in other settings, including the basal detachments of catastrophic landslides and saturated high-velocity friction experiments on clay-bearing gouges. An overprinting foliation is present in the slip zone of the principal fault, and electron backscatter diffraction analyses indicate the presence of a weak calcite crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) in the fine-grained matrix. The calcite c-axes are systematically inclined in the direction of shear. We suggest that fluidization of ultracataclastic sub-layers and formation of clast-cortex grains within the principal slip zone occurred at high strain rates during propagation of seismic ruptures whereas development of an overprinting CPO occurred by intergranular pressure solution during post-seismic creep. Further work is required to document the range of microstructures in localized slip zones that cross-cut different lithologies, and to compare natural slip zone microstructures with those produced in controlled deformation experiments.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal changes in land cover and aquatic macrophytes of the Danube floodplain lake     

Helena O?ahe?ová  Ján O?ahe?  Robert Pazúr  Richard Hrivnák  Milan Valachovi? 《Limnologica》2011,41(4):316-324

The aquatic vegetation of ?í?ov Lake in the Danube floodplain, which is listed in the Ramsar Convention, was investigated to address three main questions: (1) how have landscape composition and the structures of the lake and its buffer zone changed from the mid-20th century; (2) how have species richness and the abundance of the aquatic macrophyte assemblage in this lake ecosystem changed over the last 34 years; and (3) which landscape metrics can best explain these temporal changes for floating-leaved macrophytes? Two methodological approaches, remote sensing and botanical field surveys, were applied. Historical (1949, 1970, 1990) and contemporary (2006) aerial photographs were analysed to determine land cover. Landscape configuration and structure were analysed using eight landscape metrics selected in advance to measure spatio-temporal changes and the fragmentation of the lake ecosystem and its corresponding buffer zone. The species diversity, abundance and distribution of true aquatic macrophytes were surveyed eleven times in five survey stretches between 1973 and 2007.At the landscape level, a decrease in the area covered by floating-leaved macrophytes, as well as an increase in open water surface and fragmentation of the land cover classes in the lake ecosystem, were recorded from 1949 to 2006. Overall, 30 true aquatic macrophytes were found from 1973 to 2007. Species richness did not change considerably, but the abundance of aquatic species fluctuated over the years. Three groups of true aquatic vegetation, based on common structural characteristics, were found in 1973–1983, 1989–2002, and 2004–2007 over the last 34 years. The landscape metrics NP, PD, LPI, and SHDI, which all express patterns of landscape fragmentation mostly indicate temporal changes in floating-leaved macrophytes.  相似文献   

Woodland expansion’s influence on belowground carbon and nitrogen in the Great Basin U.S.     

Benjamin M. Rau  Dale W. Johnson  Bruce A. Roundy  Richard F. Miller  Todd G. Caldwell  Annmarie Lucchesi 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(9):827-835

Vegetation changes associated with climate shifts and anthropogenic disturbance can have major impacts on biogeochemical cycling and soils. Much of the Great Basin, U.S. is currently dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate (Rydb.) Boivin) ecosystems. Sagebrush ecosystems are increasingly influenced by pinyon (Pinus monophylla Torr. & Frém and Pinus edulis Engelm.) and juniper (Juniperus osteosperma Torr. and Juniperus occidentalis Hook.) expansion. Some scientists and policy makers believe that increasing woodland cover in the intermountain western U.S. offers the possibility of increased organic carbon (OC) storage on the landscape; however, little is currently known about the distribution of OC on these landscapes, or the role that nitrogen (N) plays in OC retention. We quantified the relationship between tree cover, belowground OC, and total below ground N in expansion woodlands at 13 sites in Utah, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Nevada, USA. One hundred and twenty nine soil cores were taken using a mechanically driven diamond tipped core drill to a depth of 90 cm. Soil, coarse fragments, and coarse roots were analyzed for OC and total N. Woodland expansion influenced the vertical distribution of root OC by increasing 15-30 cm root OC by 2.6 Mg ha⁻¹ and root N by 0.04 Mg ha⁻¹. Root OC and N increased through the entire profile by 3.8 and 0.06 Mg ha⁻¹ respectively. Woodland expansion influenced the vertical distribution of soil OC by increasing surface soil (0-15 cm) OC by 2.2 Mg ha⁻¹. Woodland expansion also caused a 1.3 Mg ha⁻¹ decrease in coarse fragment associated OC from 75-90 cm. Our data suggests that woodland expansion into sagebrush ecosystems has limited potential to store additional belowground OC, and must be weighed against the risk of increased wildfire and exotic grass invasion.  相似文献   

Structure and evolution of mass transport deposits in the South Caspian Basin,Azerbaijan     

Steve E. J. Richardson  Richard J. Davies  Mark B. Allen  Simon F. Grant 《Basin Research》2011,23(6):702-719

The Quaternary to late Pliocene sedimentary succession along the margin of the South Caspian Basin contains numerous kilometre‐scale submarine slope failures, which were sourced along the basin slope and from the inclined flanks of contemporaneous anticlines. This study uses three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data to visualise the internal structure of 27 mass transport deposits and catalogues the syndepositional structures contained within them. These are used to interpret emplacement processes occurring during submarine slope failure. The deposits consist of three linked structural domains: extensional, translational and compressive, each containing characteristic structures. Novel features are present within the mass transport deposits: (1) a diverging retrogression of the headwall scarp; (2) the absence of a conventional headwall scarp around growth stratal pinch outs; (3) restraining bends in the lateral margin; (4) a downslope increase in the throw of thrust faults. The results of this study shed light on the deformation that occurred during submarine slope failure, and highlight an important geological process in the evolution of the South Caspian Basin margin.  相似文献   

Towards Closure? Coexistence,remoteness and righteousness in Indigenous policy in Australia     

Richard Howitt  Jessica McLean 《The Australian geographer》2015,46(2):137-145

The policy framework claiming to support Indigenous people in remote parts of Australia is in disarray with Commonwealth, state and territory governments proposing closure of remote communities on a range of economic and social policy grounds, but facing significant criticism on economic, environmental, social and cultural grounds. Western Australia's proposal to close 150 remote communities, announced in late-2014, is reviewed and found to reveal a profound failure of geographical literacy.  相似文献   

No consensus on consensus: the challenge of finding a universal approach to measuring and mapping ensemble consistency in GCM projections   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carol F. McSweeney  Richard G. Jones 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):617-629

Communicating information about consistency in projections is crucial to the successful understanding, interpretation and appropriate application of information from climate models about future climate and its uncertainties. However, mapping the consistency of model projections in such a way that this information is communicated clearly remains a challenge that several recently published papers have sought to address in the run up to the IPCC AR5. We highlight that three remaining issues have not been fully addressed by the literature to date. Allen and Ingram (Nature 419:224, 2002) While additional information about regions where projected changes in rainfall are not ‘statistically significant’ can provide useful information for policy, the spatial scale at which changes are assessed has a substantial impact on the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the detectability of changes. We demonstrate that by spatially smoothing the model projections we can provide more information about the nature of the signal for larger regions of the world. Christensen et al. (2007) Combining information about magnitude, consistency and statistical significance of projected changes in a single map can cause reduced legibility. We demonstrate the difficulty in finding a ‘universal’ method suitable for a wide range of audiences DEFRA (2012) We highlight that regions where projected changes in average rainfall are not statistically significant, changes in variability may still cause significant impacts. We stress the need to communicate this effectively in order to avoid mis-leading users. Finally, we comment on regions of the world where messages for users of climate information about ensemble consistency have changed since AR4, noting that these changes are due largely to changes in the methods of measuring consistency rather than any discernable differences between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles.  相似文献